EUR/USD: YTD lows on the cards below key 200-D SMA

• EUR/USD: bears in control below the 200-D SMA, where next, YTD lows? 
• EUR/USD: little support between here and YTD lows, watching global recovery, FOMC and domestic data/ECB.

EUR/USD is looking to stablise at a key technical level, with the 200-D SMA at 1.2014. Currently, EUR/USD is trading at 1.2006, down -0.60% on the day, having posted a daily high at 1.2085 and low at 1.1981.

EUR/USD has dropped through a number of key technical levels in the last nine sessions, weighed by an unwind of the reflation trade higher US yields, a higher dollar and data disappointments driving sentiment towards a catch 22 for the ECB - Banks and the European economy would probably be better off without QE and ultra-low rates in theory but the reality might be that this would leave the economy with much higher systemic risk, where Draghi has hinted time and time again. 

Global Q1 GDP in expansion? - NBF

Eyes on DXY above 200-D SMA

Eyes will turn to the DXY through the 200- d SMA and making a base on the 92 handle. There are further downside risks for the euro here and with this week's FOMC and nonfarm payrolls data, upside surprises there and a hawkish rhetoric from the FOMC could push yields higher again, sending the benchmark 10's through the yield top on the dailies at 3.0350% sending the EUR/USD down further below the 200-D SMA with eyes on the YTD lows of 1.1915.

EUR/USD levels

"Longer term we will allow for losses back to the 55 week ma at 1.1812. The 1.2215 5th April low maintains immediate bearish pressure," analysts at Commerzbank explained. 

"There is little, obvious support below the 1.20 until 1.1918, the Jan low," analysts at Scotiabank explained. 

A break of YTD lows opens the 1.1553 November low as a key target. On the flip-side, the daily cloud base is a key target while the cluster of MAs and trend line resistance could also prove sticky once the price gets above 1.2415 and the March highs at 1.2447/76.