US GDP tracking update: lowered Q2 GDP estimate by 0.3pp to 3.0% - Nomura

Analysts at Nomura offered their GDP tracking update.

Key Quotes:

"The Monthly Advance Economic Indicator Report lowered wholesalers' and retailers' inventories for March, suggesting less inventory investment in Q1. As a result, we lowered our Q1 GDP tracking estimate by 0.1pp to 0.6%. Note that the second estimate of Q1 GDP will be released tomorrow."

"The weakness in inventory investment appeared to carry over into the second quarter as the advance estimates of wholesale and retail inventories both declined by 0.3% m-o-m in April. Moreover, real goods exports came in a little weaker than expected in April. Although we think most of inventory corrections have already been completed, today's inventory data imply that businesses might remain cautious about future demand. Altogether, we lowered our Q2 GDP tracking estimate by 0.3pp to 3.0%."