When is Eurozone flash CPI and how could affect EUR/USD?

Eurozone CPI flash estimate Overview

Eurostat will publish the euro zone's inflation first estimate for February at 0930GMT today. Consumer prices are expected to show a 2.0% rise on a yearly basis, following the 1.8% growth seen previously. While the core figures are expected to show no growth, and would remain steady at 0.9% y/y in Feb.

Deviation impact on EUR/USD

Readers can find FX Street's proprietary deviation impact map of the event below. As observed the reaction is likely to remain confined between 10 and 40 pips in deviations up to 1.5 to -3, although in some cases, if notable enough, a deviation can fuel movements of up to 50 pips.

How could affect EUR/USD?

If the CPI comes weaker-than-expected it would cast doubts on the effectiveness of the ECB’s monetary policy program, which would exacerbate the pain in EUR/USD, knocking-off the rate below 1.0500 levels. On the other hand, a much stronger CPI data could rescue the bulls from the recent declines, lifting the major back beyond 1.0550.

Key notes

Eurozone: HICP inflation figure expected to print 2.0% y/y – Danske Bank

According to the analysts at Danske Bank, the inflation figures in Germany, France, Italy and Spain point to an increase in the euro area HICP inflation figure due today of 0.2pp, which is slightly higher than their and consensus expectations of an increase from 1.8% to 1.9%

About Eurozone CPI flash estimate

The Euro Zone CPI released by the Eurostat captures the changes in the price of goods and services. The CPI is a significant way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation in the Euro Zone. Generally, a high reading anticipates a hawkish attitude which will be positive (or bullish) for the EUR, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).