Key US economic events for the week ahead – Deutsche Bank

Analysts at Deutsche Bank enlist a slew of key major economic releases due on the cards from the US docket later this week.

Key Quotes:

“The ADP private employment survey for September (+140k forecast vs. +177k previously) should be soft relative to the trailing three-month average (181k). A statistically significant outlier in the results could lead us to revisit our estimate of September nonfarm payrolls (+130k vs. +151k).“

“On the margin, the September nonmanufacturing (51.0 vs. 51.4) may shade forecasters estimates for Friday's employment report if the employment component, which was 53.7 last month, were deteriorate meaningfully.“

“The international trade balance (-$39.0 billion vs. -$39.5 billion) and factory orders (Unch. vs. +1.9%) reports for August will also sharpen expectations for Q3 real GDP.”

“Friday’s employment report is clearly the highlight of the week, because it has the potential to change both investors’ and monetary policymakers’ assessment of the economic outlook.”

“The unemployment rate (4.9% vs. 4.9%) is expected to remain at its trailing 12-month average. Growth in average hourly earnings (+0.2% vs. +0.1%) is expected to remain soft.”