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25 Jan 2016
USD/JPY caught in a 118-123 range – Danske Bank
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Senior Analyst at Danske Bank Morten Helt sees the pair keeping the 118.00-123.00 range within a year’s time.
Key Quotes
“JPY appreciation has accelerated in 2016 due to negative risk sentiment on global markets”.
“BoJ easing expectations are low despite the recent strengthening of the JPY and the decline in the oil price, which has weakened the near term inflation outlook”.
“In coming months, spring wage negotiations will be in focus as this will be a very important factor in relation to BoJ’s monetary policy”.
“We believe wage increases will be higher than last year which should remove some of the pressure on BoJ to ease further. With the BoJ expected to continue its current QQE program at JPY80trn until 2017 and additional hikes from the Fed to some extend already priced, we expect USD/JPY to be caught in a 118-123 range in the coming 12 months”.
“We have lowered our forecast profile (main scenario) and now look for a gradual increase to118 (124) in 1M, and 120 in 3, 6 and 12M (was 124, 125 and 125, respectively) as relative rates is expected to be less supportive for USD/JPY going forward. However, we stress that risk remain skewed to the upside in the event of additional BoJ easing”.
Key Quotes
“JPY appreciation has accelerated in 2016 due to negative risk sentiment on global markets”.
“BoJ easing expectations are low despite the recent strengthening of the JPY and the decline in the oil price, which has weakened the near term inflation outlook”.
“In coming months, spring wage negotiations will be in focus as this will be a very important factor in relation to BoJ’s monetary policy”.
“We believe wage increases will be higher than last year which should remove some of the pressure on BoJ to ease further. With the BoJ expected to continue its current QQE program at JPY80trn until 2017 and additional hikes from the Fed to some extend already priced, we expect USD/JPY to be caught in a 118-123 range in the coming 12 months”.
“We have lowered our forecast profile (main scenario) and now look for a gradual increase to118 (124) in 1M, and 120 in 3, 6 and 12M (was 124, 125 and 125, respectively) as relative rates is expected to be less supportive for USD/JPY going forward. However, we stress that risk remain skewed to the upside in the event of additional BoJ easing”.