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21 Jan 2016
ECB decision preview: What to expect of EUR/USD?
FXStreet (Mumbai) - Having peaked at 1.0920 region in early Europe, the EUR/USD pair gradually extended to the downside after the European stocks rally weighed over the shared currency. Over the last hours, the major is seen oscillating back and forth around 1.09 handle, consolidating the upside ahead of the key risk events due later this session, the ECB policy decision followed by Draghi’s press conference.
No new action expected from the ECB
At its Dec 3 meeting, the ECB extended the asset purchase programme past September 2016 and cut the deposit rate by 10 basis points. Markets were highly disappointed as the ECB turned out not so aggressive with regards to QE, while the ECB Chief Draghi sounded ‘unusually hawkish’.
No new measures are likely to be announced by the ECB at its policy meeting today, and the monetary policy setting are likely to remain unadjusted. Interest rates will be maintained at 0.05%, the deposit facility rate at -0.30% and the marginal lending facility rate at 0.30%. The asset purchase programme is also expected to continue at €60bn a month until March 2017.
Draghi’s presser will be closely watched for any hint on the futures course of the ECB monetary policy. Although, as widely expected the ECB Chief is not expected to signal the need for another deposit rate cut or QE expansion, which would once again disappoint markets. ECB would want to remain in a wait-and-see mode in wake of the recent oil price declines and continue with its assessment of the effects of last month’s measures announced on the economy. Hence, the EUR crosses are likely to find some support post-decision.
Banks’ views on today’s ECB decision
Barclays: Do not expect any policy action, but worsening of inflation outlook has raised pressure on ECB for more easing later this year.
Citi: ECB probably to stay put on rates and make no additional announcements. See more easing likely in June (depot cut, QE expansion/extension), but see growing risk for action in March.
Rabobank: Expect no ECB Auction this month. Hurdle to future measures is significant, but cut to March inflation projections will be difficult to ignore. A 10bp cut in deposit rate in March my prove path of least resistance.
Goldman: Expect ECB to stay on hold. See Draghi saying the GC discussed further easing steps but strong majority in favour of keeping policy unchanged. Expect ECB to announce extension of its QE to Sep17 from Mar17 in June.
BAML: Too early for ECB to return to "activist mode" but likely to be forced into action by the end of spring with focus likely on QE.
EUR/USD Technical Levels
Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXStreet explained, “At this point, the pair needs to extend beyond 1.1000 to have a bullish chance following the ECB, and advance up to the 1.1060 high. Should the rally extend beyond this last, the next bullish target comes at 1.1120, a level that will likely be reached before the week is over. A break below the base of the range at 1.0790 on the other hand may see a retest of the mentioned lows in the 1.0710 region, leaving the pair then, poised to resume the long term bearish trend."
No new action expected from the ECB
At its Dec 3 meeting, the ECB extended the asset purchase programme past September 2016 and cut the deposit rate by 10 basis points. Markets were highly disappointed as the ECB turned out not so aggressive with regards to QE, while the ECB Chief Draghi sounded ‘unusually hawkish’.
No new measures are likely to be announced by the ECB at its policy meeting today, and the monetary policy setting are likely to remain unadjusted. Interest rates will be maintained at 0.05%, the deposit facility rate at -0.30% and the marginal lending facility rate at 0.30%. The asset purchase programme is also expected to continue at €60bn a month until March 2017.
Draghi’s presser will be closely watched for any hint on the futures course of the ECB monetary policy. Although, as widely expected the ECB Chief is not expected to signal the need for another deposit rate cut or QE expansion, which would once again disappoint markets. ECB would want to remain in a wait-and-see mode in wake of the recent oil price declines and continue with its assessment of the effects of last month’s measures announced on the economy. Hence, the EUR crosses are likely to find some support post-decision.
Banks’ views on today’s ECB decision
Barclays: Do not expect any policy action, but worsening of inflation outlook has raised pressure on ECB for more easing later this year.
Citi: ECB probably to stay put on rates and make no additional announcements. See more easing likely in June (depot cut, QE expansion/extension), but see growing risk for action in March.
Rabobank: Expect no ECB Auction this month. Hurdle to future measures is significant, but cut to March inflation projections will be difficult to ignore. A 10bp cut in deposit rate in March my prove path of least resistance.
Goldman: Expect ECB to stay on hold. See Draghi saying the GC discussed further easing steps but strong majority in favour of keeping policy unchanged. Expect ECB to announce extension of its QE to Sep17 from Mar17 in June.
BAML: Too early for ECB to return to "activist mode" but likely to be forced into action by the end of spring with focus likely on QE.
EUR/USD Technical Levels
Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXStreet explained, “At this point, the pair needs to extend beyond 1.1000 to have a bullish chance following the ECB, and advance up to the 1.1060 high. Should the rally extend beyond this last, the next bullish target comes at 1.1120, a level that will likely be reached before the week is over. A break below the base of the range at 1.0790 on the other hand may see a retest of the mentioned lows in the 1.0710 region, leaving the pair then, poised to resume the long term bearish trend."