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9 Jan 2015
Russia-Ukraine: A top risks for 2015 - ING
FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at ING Bank INV suggested that in terms of the fallout from the precipitate drop in oil prices, Russia stands out.
Key Quotes:
"And the geopolitics surrounding the Russia-Ukraine situation was always going to be one of our top risks for 2015".
"Optimists might cite the hit to Russia’s growth, fiscal position, inflation and currency as reasons for President Putin to take a more conciliatory line on Ukraine. However, you can make a plausible case that instead of backing down and losing face, he becomes even more confrontational".
"Putin’s local popularity gained substantially from the annexation of Crimea. Europe and the US can be portrayed locally as the aggressors through their sanctions and US oil production. And, just maybe, low oil prices will lead to an intensification of the brinksmanship that has occurred recently – we are thinking here of the Russian air force presence around the Baltics and alleged submarine sightings off the Swedish coast".
"Meanwhile, Russia seems to be forging closer links with NATO countries like Turkey, which appears to be leaning more towards the East than the West right now. More of the same cannot be ruled out".
Key Quotes:
"And the geopolitics surrounding the Russia-Ukraine situation was always going to be one of our top risks for 2015".
"Optimists might cite the hit to Russia’s growth, fiscal position, inflation and currency as reasons for President Putin to take a more conciliatory line on Ukraine. However, you can make a plausible case that instead of backing down and losing face, he becomes even more confrontational".
"Putin’s local popularity gained substantially from the annexation of Crimea. Europe and the US can be portrayed locally as the aggressors through their sanctions and US oil production. And, just maybe, low oil prices will lead to an intensification of the brinksmanship that has occurred recently – we are thinking here of the Russian air force presence around the Baltics and alleged submarine sightings off the Swedish coast".
"Meanwhile, Russia seems to be forging closer links with NATO countries like Turkey, which appears to be leaning more towards the East than the West right now. More of the same cannot be ruled out".